Don’t Rely On the Surveys


I really missed writings on my blog because my laptop was badly damaged and repaired it twice at the end of  February up to the first week of March.  I really missed chatting with my parents in Canada through Skype.com, Yahoo Messenger, and socializing my friends through facebook.

I am writing here on my blog about the political surveys.  Surveys are conducted by the country’s two leading survey firms:  The Social Weather Station (SWS) and Pulse Asia.

In the latest Pulse Asia survey that Sen. Noynoy Aquino is leading at 36% while Sen. Manny Villar got 29% and former President Joseph Estrada obtained with 18%.

Pulse Asia (pulseasia.com.ph) said Senator Aquino enjoys a significant lead in the National Capital Region (40%) and among the upper socioeconomic classes ABC (43%) and D (36%), but shares the top spot  with Senator Villar in Balance Luzon (33% Aquino; 31% Villar) and  Visayas (39% Aquino, 38% Villar) and among the poorest class E (36% Aquino; 33% Villar). Meanwhile, given the survey’s error margin, nearly as many voters in Mindanao choose Senator Aquino (38%) as choose former President Estrada (31%) as their presidential bet.

With 43% of voter preferences, Senator Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas II (LP) continues to enjoy a sizeable lead over the other vice-presidential candidates. Senator Loren Legarda (NPC) places second with 27%, followed by Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (PDP-Laban) with 15%. Meanwhile, the other contenders obtain voter support of 4% or less. Seven percent (7%) of voters have no vice-presidential preference.

[Here’s the latest presidential survey conducted by SWS through Business World online. Top presidentiables Senators Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar are now on the statistical tie.

The poll, the third conducted by the survey research institution for this newspaper, found the front-runners ” senators Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III and Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr. ” both losing ground among voters with little over two months to go before the May 10 national elections.

The cost, however, was more substantial for the Liberal Party’s Mr. Aquino, who saw his overall score cut by a substantial six points to 36%, compared to just a one percentage-point drop to 34% for the Nacionalista Party’s Mr. Villar.

The gap between the two falls within the ±2.2% margin of error used in the Feb. 24-28 survey, which used face-to-face interviews of 2,100 registered voters nationwide.

All lists on the ballot were in alphabetical order and included nicknames as practiced by the Comelec on election day.

The question asked was “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang Presidente, Bise-Presidente, at mga Senador ng Pilipinas. Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki-shade o itiman po ang naa-angkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pina-kamalamang ninyong iboboto (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as President, Vice-President, and Senators of the Philippines. Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for).

In addition to those who declined to vote, did not choose or pick more than one presidential candidate, the 4% in the “undecided” category includes a small proportion ” 1.6% ” of ballots where the marks could not be read by an optical scanning machine.

An analyst said political machinery could start coming into larger play later this month, with local candidates scheduled to start stumping for their and allied national bets’ votes on March 26.

Mr. Aquino’s six-point fall, according to the SWS, came on account of drops in all four geographical study areas: seven points in the Balance of Luzon, six in Mindanao, five in the Visayas, and three in Metro Manila.

Mr. Villar, meanwhile, lost six percentage points in Metro Manila, two in the Balance of Luzon, and one in Mindanao, but picked up five in the Visayas to trim his overall slide to just one point.

By area, the SWS said Mr. Aquino remained ahead in Metro Manila, the Visayas, and Mindanao, while Mr. Villar was in front in the Balance of Luzon.

Their lost votes appear to have gone to the third- and fourth-ranked candidates: former President Joseph “Erap” M. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, who picked up two points to score 15%, and administration bet Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro of the Lakas KAMPI-CMD, who also gained by two to 6%.

While the gap between the top two and the next two remained substantial, the SWS noted that support for Mr. Estrada was up by six points in Metro Manila, three in Mindanao, and one in the rest of Luzon. The former president ” ousted, convicted of corruption and later pardoned ” lost two points in the Visayas.

Mr. Teodoro, meanwhile, saw his support up by three points each in the Balance of Luzon and Mindanao, and by one in the Visayas, while dropping by only one point in Metro Manila.

Vote percentages for the rest of the presidentiables did not change significantly, the SWS said, from the previous poll done from Jan. 21-24. Eduardo C. “Bro. Eddie” Villanueva of Bangon Pilipinas picked up a point to 3% to stay in fifth place, followed by Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon whose share stayed at 2%.

Kilusang Bagong Lipunan candidate Vetellano “Dodong” S. Acosta ” disqualified by the Commission on Elections last week for not running a proper campaign ” saw a minuscule uptick to 0.4%. The same 0.1 percentage point gain, to 0.2%, was enjoyed by independent candidate Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas.

Ang Kapatiran bet John Carlos “JC” G. De Los Reyes slipped by the same margin to 0.1%, while independent candidate Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal saw her 0.4% score in January cut to just 0.1%.

For area scores, the margins of error used were ±6% for Metro Manila and ±4% for the Balance of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao.
By class, meanwhile, Mr. Aquino was said to be ahead among the masa or class D, albeit at a lower 38% from 45% previously, while Mr. Villar was the top pick for classes ABC ” a lower 33% from 40% ” and E ” two points down to 34%.

“The key change from the Jan. 21-24 survey in class ABC was that both Villar and Aquino lost seven points, while Estrada gained four points and Teodoro gained two points,” the SWS said.

Mr. Villar did not widen a three-point ABC gap with Mr. Aquino but his lead over Mr. Estrada was cut to 19 points from 30 previously.
Among the masa, Mr. Aquino lost seven points while Mr. Villar stayed steady: the gap thus narrowed to four points. Mr. Estrada picked up a point to Mr. Teodoro’s two.

In class E, Mr. Aquino lost six points while Mr. Villar lost two. Mr. Teodoro gained three and Mr. Estrada two. The class E lead thus shifted to Mr. Villar, the SWS said. — Excerpts from http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=7442%5D

Sen. Richard Gordon (Bagumbayan Party) spoke to UH Hiritan 2010 on Unang Hirit this morning that he said surveys stole the minds of the people and don’t rely to the past achievements of the candidates.

Surveys are only numbers game and possibly changed anytime. It’s  not really reliable whether this presidential or vice-presidential aspirant is spearheading on the latest surveys.  Filipinos in poor classes believe that the leading aspirant will win this 2010 due to popularity or so called pogi points.

May I ask to the newly youth voters to choose their candidates neither by popularity nor by “crab”  intelligence.  Voters must rely through the past achievements of their candidates with strong political wills and higher intelligence to move progress in our country not by surveys.

I believe that people will make surveys through COMELEC’s poll automation and not by reliable survey firms. I hope they must pray and reflect to find the next (must be upright) leader in this nation.

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